Territorial Sovereignty: An Analysis of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
A photograph of the two flags of Armenia and Azerbaijan
By Jim Wells ‘26
Including Statements from an Interview with Dr. Michael A. Reynolds, Associate Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University
On October 13, 2023, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held a discussion with a select group of elected officials in which he warned of a possible invasion of Armenia in the coming weeks by neighboring Azerbaijan. While the State Department has refused any comment on the discussion, they reiterated in an official statement that the United States was committed to Armenia’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. Although an invasion would present a new development in the ongoing territorial dispute, the warning comes as no surprise to those who have been following the conflict and only serves as a potential development of the ongoing friction in the Caucuses.
A Brief History of the Conflict
After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the area known today as the Caucuses, initially became the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic. Located between Europe and Asia, this state was quickly dissolved following Russia’s withdrawal from any further involvement in World War I. Subsequently, in late May of 1918, the modern nations of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan were formed. Immediately, skirmishes began to break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a mountainous 1,700 square-mile piece of land located in the southern part of the Caucuses.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region has a historical precedent of being culturally significant to both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The town of Shusha, for example, was founded in the mid-18th century and is a prime example of the cultural diversity that exists within the region, serving as a home to multiple historic Armenian Apostolic Churches as well as acting as an epicenter of Azerbaijani music, art, and culture. In 1921, Russian Soviets gained control over the entire Caucasus region and established Armenia and Azerbaijan as independent republics. They also designated Nagorno-Karabakh as a semi-autonomous area within the borders of Azerbaijan, despite it having a predominantly Armenian population at the time. Ethnic Armenians living within the Nagorno-Karabakh region frequently petitioned the Soviet Union to allow them to join the Armenian Republic, but their requests were denied. In the mid-1980s the Soviet Union instituted a policy of Glasnost, which was intended to allot more political freedoms to its citizens. However, this policy backfired in February of 1988, when ethnic Armenians within the Nagorno-Karabakh region passed a referendum to leave the Azerbaijan Republic, reinvigorating tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
As the Soviet Union dissolved in the early 1990s, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh developed into a war, with full-scale armed conflict erupting in late 1992 and continuing until May 1994 when Russia brokered a cease-fire agreement. The conflict, resulting in the deaths of roughly 20,000 people and the displacement of over a million more, ended with Armenia controlling Nagorno-Karabakh as well as other parts of southern Azerbaijan. Following this development, Armenia formally began renaming Azeri towns and ethnic Armenians began to move there. Both countries maintained a military presence on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, and sporadic fighting continued, with the most significant escalation occurring for four straight days in April 2016. This resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Armenians and an unknown number of Azerbaijanis.
In 2020, however, the balance of power began to shift as Turkey became directly involved, supporting Azerbaijan by supplying small-arms weapons, drones, and long-range heavy artillery. This aid emboldened the Azerbaijanis and in September 2020, they began an attack on Armenian held territory. Following Azerbaijan’s capturing the city of Shusha, a cease-fire agreement was signed on November 10, 2020, allowing Azerbaijan to keep the territory it captured as well as to claim pieces of land previously controlled by Armenia on the countries’ shared border. This agreement also allowed parts of Nagorno-Karabakh to remain under Armenian control. Outraged by the outcome of this 44-day war and the terms of the ceasefire, enraged Armenian crowds stormed government buildings, and protests erupted calling for the removal of their prime minister. Azerbaijanis also expressed their discontent with this result, as the Armenian government continued to militarily occupy parts of the region, one that they considered to be a part of Azerbaijan.
The Conflict in Modern Day
In the years since the 2020 ceasefire, the Azerbaijani government has consistently claimed that the entirety of the Nagorno-Karabakh region should be under their control. During this time, the Azerbaijani government promulgated a message to the approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in the region: submit to Azerbaijani rule or leave. The Armenian government pushed back by advocating for territorial independence for the residents of the region. Tensions surrounding the conflict began to escalate once again in December 2022 when Azerbaijan instituted a blockade around the Lachin Corridor, the only connecting route between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Russian soldiers had been overseeing this route in a peacekeeping capacity since the 2020 ceasefire, their presence and influence in the region had steadily diminished due to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leading to the Azerbaijani blockade. The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, condemned Russia for abandoning the region, leaving ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh vulnerable. The closure of the Lachin Corridor, a critical supply route used by Armenians to transport humanitarian assistance and essential goods to the region, resulted in shortages of food and medical provisions. Azerbaijan then created a military checkpoint along the route in April 2023, further limiting the flow of resources, creating what the U.S. State Department called a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. Then, on September 19,, 2023, the Azerbaijani military launched an anti-terror operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region against what it referred to as an illegal Armenian military presence, though the Armenian government denied any unauthorized military presence in the region.
According to CNN, this military operation by Azerbaijan resulted in approximately 200 people being killed and 400 being wounded. One day later, on September 20, 2023, a ceasefire brokered by the Russian Defense Ministry called for the abolition of all Armenian military presence within the region. Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader, Samvel Shahramanyan, also signed an agreement that dissolved all state institutions. This effectively halted any immediate prospects of territorial independence for at least one year. In return, ethnic Armenians were granted assured safe passage to leave the region. According to the Armenian government, more than half of Nagorno-Karabakh's ethnic Armenian residents have fled the region thus far. In contrast, the Azerbaijani government has expressed its intention to assimilate the ethnically Armenian inhabitants of the Nagorno-Karabakh region into its population as equal citizens. The government has also rejected any allegations of implementing policies amounting to ethnic cleansing.
Where the Conflict Goes from Here
It is challenging to predict the potential outcomes of this conflict. In an interview conducted with Dr. Michael A. Reynolds, an Associate Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, Reynolds articulates the duality of the issue: “On one side, you have the Karabakhi Armenians who are attempting to exercise a claim to national self-determination, while on the other you have the Azerbaijani’s who are asserting the principle of territorial integrity.” Reynolds further expounds on this dichotomy, stating that “In the context of Nagorno-Karabakh, these two principles are irreconcilable.” On October 24, 2023, the foreign minister of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov, espoused a hopeful rhetoric at a press conference in the southern part of the Caucuses. “There are real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a short period of time,” Bayramov claimed at the conference, which was mediated by Russian diplomats.
Little, if any, of this sentiment seems to be echoed on the Armenian side. In fact, Armenian officials have declined to provide any official comments on the progress of peace talks. Some Armenians express an optimistic attitude toward the conflict, while others remain skeptical. Tigran Balayan, Armenia’s incoming ambassador to the European Union, has expressed his worry of an invasion of mainland Armenia by Azerbaijani forces within weeks. On the international stage, world leaders seem torn as to how to adequately address this conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken has publicly condemned Azerbaijan’s recent use of military force, with the U.S. State Department expressing deep concern with Azerbaijan’s recent military actions. However, Blinken has not committed to providing any military assistance to the government of Armenia.
Certain countries, such as France and Turkey, have taken a more hardline approach. France has recently committed to providing Armenia with weapons and various forms of military assistance, while Turkey is actively engaging in joint military operations with Azerbaijan. Current patterns of human migration also play a factor in a possible resolution. Dr. Michael A. Reynolds discusses this important facet by offering a reminder that “Nagorno-Karabakh is a remote and largely rural area. Yet the trend around the world is everyone migrating from rural areas to cities for employment.” As such, it is unclear how many people would want to act conversely to this sociological trend by moving to the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The path forward for the conflict remains uncertain and fraught with complexities. On November 27, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed hope for a peaceful resolution in a call with Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan. How to achieve this resolution remains unclear.