Moderates Decided the 2020 Election
By Beck Reiferson
Now that the dust has begun to settle on the 2020 election, the Democratic Party has found itself divided over which faction of the party—progressives or moderates—is most responsible for both President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and the losses of many down-ballot Democratic candidates at the federal and state levels. The outcome of this debate will ultimately have a significant impact on which candidates the Democratic establishment chooses to support in future elections. A review of exit polling data reveals that moderate voters carried the election for Biden, and that there is legitimacy to the claims of more centrist Democrats that the rhetoric of the party’s more progressive wing hurt Congressional and state level candidates further down the ballot on Election Day.
According to exit polling data from The New York Times, 64% of self-described political moderates—a clear majority—voted for Biden, while only 34% voted for President Donald Trump. This is a dramatic shift from 2016, when Trump won 41% of the moderate vote, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 52%. This trend of Biden making gains among the political center holds for party affiliation as well: in 2020, 54% of Independents voted for Biden, 12% higher than the mere 42% of Independents who voted for Clinton in 2016; Trump’s share of the Independent vote, meanwhile, fell from 48% in 2016 to just 41% in 2020. Clearly, then, at the national level, there was a significant movement of centrists away from Trump and toward the Democratic nominee. As Trump has enacted far-right policies and made outlandish statements, he has alienated his more moderate supporters, and Biden was able to take advantage of that.
National trends also persisted in particular states that played a decisive role in the election. In Georgia, for example, Biden won 8% more of the “moderate” vote share than did Clinton, and 12% more of the Independent vote share. He also made similar gains in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. With the exception of Nevada, which Clinton won in 2016, these are all states that Biden was able to flip from 2016, and they have enough electoral votes between them to account for his victory. Biden’s gains among the political center greatly contributed to his success in these states and, ultimately, his victory.
Viewing the results of the presidential election as primarily the product of increased moderate/Independent support for the Democratic candidate also helps to explain why Democrats won the White House but underperformed relative to expectations in the House of Representatives and the Senate. It would not make sense for support for liberal policy to carry Biden to victory but not simultaneously carry Democrats to victories nationwide. Rather, there was a reaction against Democratic policies, and Biden was viewed favorably enough—or, perhaps more likely, Trump was not viewed favorably enough—to buck the larger trend.
This is especially clear given Biden’s efforts to frame himself as a candidate who can unite the country: Biden actively shied away from associating himself with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, knowing that such an association would be divisive and counterproductive to his presidential ambitions. This is because, nationwide, being connected to progressivism was a losing strategy come Election Day. Though one may point to the reelection of the members of the so-called “Squad”— Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, and Rashida Tlaib, all of whom have been extremely vocal advocates for progressive policies such as the Green New Deal and are frequently mentioned in the media—as proof that progressives can still win elections, this is misleading: despite all being from consistently blue districts, the three who faced opposition in both 2020 and 2018 (Congresswoman Pressley ran unopposed in 2018) all received at least 9% less of the vote share this year than they did when they initially were elected two years ago. Congresswomen Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, and Tlaib won 9.5%, 20.6%, and 17.1% less of the vote share, respectively, than in 2018.
Among progressive policies that have become increasingly popular, one stood out in particular in the eyes of moderate Democratic officials as an idea that repelled centrist voters in non-presidential elections this year: the “defund the police” movement. In states like Minnesota, where Democrats lost ground in the US House and state Senate, and New York, where Congressman Max Rose lost his reelection bid to a Republican challenger, both voters and political consultants cited the “defund the police” slogan as a significant factor in Republican successes, alarming citizens who viewed the slogan as dangerous and unrealistic. Similarly, House Majority Whip James Clyburn, a Democrat from South Carolina who endorsed Biden prior to the state’s primary, said in an interview that “‘defund the police’ is killing our party, and we’ve got to stop it,” and blamed the slogan for Congressman Joe Cunningham’s unsuccessful reelection bid.
Given the evident concerns of policymakers and voters regarding left policies, and the impact winning the moderate vote had on Biden’s election victory, it would make sense from a political perspective for the Democratic Party to attempt to cater to moderate voters in future elections, instead of loudly advocating for the most progressive policies. After all, you cannot pass the laws you want to pass if you are not in office.