A (Moderately) Democratic Guide to Losing Elections
By Kevin Martinez
In the weeks following the contentious 2020 Election, Democrats have begun to take a look at their election performance in areas other than the executive office. In fact, one might even expect the fanfares to begin and the flowers to fall. Such is not the case.
Perhaps Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) said it best. In a post-mortem Democratic caucus group phone call, Spanberger stated:
“If we are classifying Tuesday as a success from a congressional standpoint, we will get [expletive] torn apart in 2022…That’s the reality.”
Rep. Spanberger is on the money here: Democrats got their house majority trimmed down by a not-insignificant amount and failed to deliver on any of the previously believed to be “toss-up” Senate races.
While Rep. Spanberger may have hit the bullseye with her first statement, her following tirade against progressives was not as cogent. According to the Honorable Representative, progressives with their “socialism” and “Defund the Police” rhetoric had cost Democrats dearly. These statements seem to be the logical progression of the growing rift between the liberal and leftist wings of the Democratic party, with some notable figureheads being Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez respectively.
Blaming progressives for losses seems to be everyone’s new favorite national pastime, with Trump and Moderate Dems alike condemning the communist threat of nationalized healthcare and a higher minimum wage. Rather than embrace leftist ideas, the Democratic strategy seems to be courting elusive moderate Republicans (the “good ones.”) Without making a judgement on the strategy itself, it’s undeniable that Democrats have been on a hot streak of underperforming relative to poll estimates and proving forecasts dead wrong.
So, what’s going on? Is the issue really with progressives? The answer is no.
For starters, let’s look at some “surprising” numbers from election night.
From 2016 to 2020, Donald Trump gained
4% with African American voters
3% with Hispanic voters
5% with Asian voters.
From 2016 to 2020 Donald Trump lost
8% with White Male voters
In short, Trump gained minority support (which can account for much of his stronger-than-expected election night showing) while white males swung big for Biden. How could this be? The answer lies in longstanding trends in voter movement.
According to many moderate Democrats, talk of socialism has driven minorities away from the party, with the line being that progressives remind them of “communist despots” in their home countries. It is interesting to note then that Democrats have been experiencing losses in minority vote percentages since 2010, when “Medicare for all” was just something Bernie Sanders muttered in his sleep. On the other hand, the Republican party has been experiencing a loss amongst white male voters since Trump’s election, with the 2018 midterm elections serving as a clear example.
These two trends are undoubtedly connected. At first glance, it seems as if the Democrat moderate strategy is working, (plausibly) assuming that many of the defectors are those “good” republicans. Everything is hunky dory then, right? There’s just that little problem of hemorrhaging minority support. Why? Do we call this portion of minorities traitors? Can they not see the racism and destruction Trump brings?
Of course they’re not traitors. In their attempts to court moderates, Democrats have forgotten to provide for their core constituents. A large portion of that courtship is carrying forward policy ideals that would appeal to republicans or in other words, adopting republican ideals. Combine this with the absence of tangible benefits attributed to voting Democrat and you have minorities that (understandably) feel as if they are being asked to sacrifice their political capital in the name of “unity”. The tradeoff is literal, White Male for Minority, creating groups that are desperate for any kind of change.
The promise of change is one that is central to the progressive identity, and could be promising for increasingly disenfranchised minority groups. However, it is hard for progressives to reach a wider audience when the Democratic establishment is so hell-bent on crushing their attempts to win office.
Take for example, Kentucky’s senate race: Democrats handpicked Amy McGrath, a veteran and an ostensibly moderate Democrat to challenge Mitch McConnell on his home turf. However, a progressive primary challenger emerged in Charles Booker, and a once symbolic primary became a battleground. Amy McGrath’s campaign received heavy backing from D.C.C.C heavyweights, and raised around $41 million. Booker’s campaign on the other hand in that same period raised less than $1 million. Done deal, right? With that much money, it must have been a blowout.
McGrath beat Booker 45% to 43%. All of those millions of dollars to win by somewhere around 12,000 votes. In the actual race, McGrath spent 75 million to McConnell’s 43 million –surely this time the money will work, right?
Amy McGrath was blown out by McConnell, losing by around 20%.
Examples of the Democratic Establishment coming out of the woodwork to crush progressive challengers can be found everywhere. Be it Ed Markey v. JK III, Ilhan Omar v. Antone Melton-Meauxe , Jamaal Bowman v. Elliot Engels, or even Bernie Sanders v. Joe Biden, Democrats continue to try and crush progressives.
“Well, what have Progressives done for the party?” you may ask. Minnesota and Michigan were two vital parts of Biden’s narrow victory. In the home stretch before election night, the Biden-Harris campaign put an end to all canvassing in the region, citing COVID concerns. Despite this, Congresswomen Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib (both with secure victories in their own races) continued to canvas in their respective districts and surrounding areas. This contributed heavily to the significant voter turnout seen in the states, securing Biden the wins he needed.
At the end of the day, it’s not likely that Democrats will accept progressives into the fold willingly. Democrats will continue to court Republicans and run from minority led movements, and the working class will continue to pay the price for it. If Democrats want to not get “[expletive] torn apart in 2022”, I suggest they take a good look at their modus operandi.