West African Anti-Democracy: The Chain of Coup Culture
A photograph taken on August 18, 2020 after Malian armed forces detained President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita.
By Cheick Sy ‘28
A Brief Overview of the Current Political Landscape in West Africa
For the past several years, West Africa has been characterized by a mix of instability and authoritarianism, and since 2020, the region has experienced constant threats to democracy. Seven different coups d’état have occurred in the region of West Africa and the Sahel, a chain reaction that has followed the first coup that occurred on August 18, 2020 in Mali. Since then, armed government takeover attempts have pervaded Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The key reasons for these coups all point to the same issues: economic stagnation and constant insecurity, fueled by trafficking efforts and general lack of resources (especially land access). The general public has exhibited positive responses to these coups, reflecting the ongoing discontent with political elites, economic hardships, and insecurity stemming from terrorism and civil conflicts. This trend within West Africa has now developed into a coup d’état culture that highlights a complex interplay of economic, social, and political factors that undermine democratic governance.
Contextual Background of West African Coups d’État
West Africa has long experienced forcibly imposed military government takeovers. Since the independence movements of many African regions in the 1960s, the number of coups across the continent has been widespread, ranging between eight and twenty-six every decade. Following this wave of independence in the 1960s, West African nations struggled with political instability, rising ethnic tensions, and serious economic challenges. These factors all added fuel to a fire of disillusionment among the populace and the military. The military, in particular, often viewed itself as a solution to political crises, and military leaders took it upon themselves to promise stability and to seize government control, leading to numerous coups throughout the West African region.
Since that period, a wave of coups d’état has persisted. World political leaders often cite the 2012 coup in Mali as a pivotal moment in this surge, one that significantly influenced political dynamics on the presence of democracy and credibility of the state in the area. The coup ousted President Amadou Toumani Touré over military discontent with the government’s handling of a Tuareg rebellion in the north and exposed the fragility of Mali’s democratic institutions as well as in other nations in the nearby regions. This event not only destabilized Malian democracy as a whole but also set a significant precedent that discontent with the government could be responded to with forcible military takeovers, prompting similar actions in neighboring nations. The Mali coup inspired other West African nations to reconsider their political structures, causing a ripple effect of military takeovers that were framed by military leaders as necessary to restore order and combat corruption, which remains a fundamental challenge throughout Malian and West African institutions. This frame set the stage for ongoing instability and challenges to democratic governance in West Africa.
Movement Against Democracy
On August 18, 2020, Malian armed forces detained President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and other government officials. This coup was swift and efficient due to the deep and complex history of coups within the region that allowed new military leaders to study the successes and failures of the past. Mali then experienced another coup just nine months later in May 2021, when Colonel Assimi Goïta, the leader of the 2020 coup, led another takeover against interim President Bah N’Daw. Goïta labeled the new government as “incompetent,” leading the charge for a coup within a coup to be carried out so that military powers could regain control in a new transitional phase. The events that took place in Mali were part of an anti-democratic trend in 2021, identified by U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres as an “epidemic of coups.” The challenges to the government in Mali have still been overshadowed due to the massive instability in the region, mostly due to militant threats in the Sahel where transnational militant groups reside and operate.
Burkina Faso followed suit in the trend of experiencing two coups d’état in the year 2022. In January 2022, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba led a junta to address the nation’s “deteriorating security situation” due to the rise in militant Islamist violence in the region with a record of 6,255 violent events linked to those groups in West Africa and the Sahel that year. However, merely nine months after this takeover, Burkina Faso once more went through another junta on September 30 when Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the 34-year-old head of an artillery unit of the Armed Forces of Burkina Faso, declared himself head of state. This coup removed Damiba from office and accused him of the same things that he had ousted the previous ruler for, with Traoré justifying his takeover by stating that he would address the country’s security crisis. While the coup leaders have tried their best to characterize the seizure of power as popular and have used the national forum to provide the appearance of support, they are effectively ruling by decree. The absence of a constitutional framework, which has been replaced by a charter imposed by Traoré himself, as well as the absence of oversight of the military or strategic direction for addressing the country’s security threats suggests that Burkina Faso’s instability is likely to persist.
The coup culture also found its way into Guinea in September 2021 when President Alpha Condé was overthrown. This coup followed Condé’s controversial decision to allow a third term for himself, increasing disillusionment and unrest in the nation as accusations of corruption rang out. The coup was framed under the image that it was a response to the frustration with the corruption of the government and the erosion of democracy. On September 5, 2021, Colonel Mamady Doumbaya ousted Condé, stating that it was the “duty of a soldier to save his country.” Due to the recent coups in neighboring countries, Doumbaya will most likely look at the precedents set in order to establish a constitution that will placate the international community while also being able to serve his ends. The issue with the ongoing coup crisis in the region is that the numerous attempts are permitting new junta leaders to learn from their predecessors and find new and effective ways of successfully establishing military rule, as seen in Doumbaya’s strategy that mirrored Goïta’s in Mali. Compared to the other coups in the region, the Guinean crisis has managed to fly under the radar, avoiding attention and scrutiny from the West and allowing the military regime to continue to entrench itself in power. This is because in the three years since the coup, living situations have deteriorated as public frustration grows and the transitional period has been prolonged as Doumbaya has neglected to set a budget for elections while simultaneously delaying the draft of a constitution.
The most recent coup d’état in the West African region took place in Niger in July 2023. The Presidential Guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum and his family after several factions of military leaders formed a junta named the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) and announced their coup as successful on a nationally televised broadcast stating that they “put an end to the regime.” This development followed the major trend in the region of prominent domestic unrest and political instability due to militant activity and internal power struggles. Although this junta in Niger claims success in their takeover, it stands at a difficult junction. It has yet to consolidate its power in the nation as responses from the public have varied, as there has been persistent support for Bazoum and mass anti-junta demonstrations. There is potential for a fallout that could have major implications for the rest of the Sahel region, possibly allowing for more security threats to arise in the future. If the CNSP were to consolidate power, it would mean that every nation in the central Sahel region would effectively be under military rule, ending an era of democracy.
Implications in the Region and for the West
Over the past four years after the successful coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger, each has been followed by severed ties with former colonial power France, as French and Western influence as a whole has been on a decline in the region. There has been a collapse of French political alliances, military engagements, and economic agreements in West Africa.
Moreover, the Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS, has expressed growing concern for the trend of military juntas in the region. Bola Tinubu, current President of Nigeria and chairman of ECOWAS, stated, “We would not allow coup after coup in the West Africa sub-region,” and he believes it to be a matter that must be brought to the African Union as well as Western powers through the European Union and the attention of the United States. Tinubu argues that “democracy is very tough to manage but it is the best form of government and we all ascribe to it. We must bite back. We can’t sit like toothless bulldogs in ECOWAS.”
The military states of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, however, acted on their own accord. On July 6, 2024, the three states signed a treaty establishing a confederation between them to be known as The Confederation of Sahel States (AES). This confederation will be headed by Mali, the initial perpetrator of the development of coup culture in the region, and it totals around 72 million people. The signing of the treaty fully cements the three regions’ rejection of ECOWAS, as well as French and Western influence. “Our peoples have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” Abdourahamane Tchiani, the current military general of Niger, said in a speech. Tchiani stated that, “It is up to us today to make the AES Confederation an alternative to any artificial regional group by building…a community free from the control of foreign powers.” The disillusionment of the three states with France stemmed from accusations that Paris was manipulating the bloc and did not provide enough aid towards the jihadist militant threat in the region.
The Russian Response
The events in West Africa are also causing a massive geopolitical shift that is challenging the Western dominance in the region. Russia has taken initiative to manipulate the frustrations of citizens through disinformation campaigns, which have in turn led to widespread support for Russian intervention and even new military partnerships between Russia and the Sahelian states.
Notably, in Burkina Faso, Russian disinformation is evident in social media posts that feature Russian operatives pretending to be local Africans expressing genuine concern for Burkina Faso. These posts tend to place heavy emphasis on blaming French military and Western powers, while praising President Vladimir Putin.
This change generates a legitimate problem for Western countries and for democracy in the region. Western powers must address the issue within the Sahel and cannot afford silence on the issue, which would only further Russian influence and push the region towards greater authoritarianism.
The Russian presence, although prominent, is beginning to falter, as it is not invincible. Russia is facing problems, as its military is being stretched thin and its troops face a dramatically worse security crisis than it has in previous times.
26,000 people in Burkina Faso have been killed, but most of the deaths (15,500) occurred in the two years since the initial coup in 2022 as Russia entered the bloc. This situation in the Sahel has led to a complex set of problems. On the one hand, Russia is dominating the information space in the region, striving to push Western influence out. But on the other hand, it appears that Russia does not have enough financial or military resources to solve the problems that have affected the West African nations. Western diplomats must stay engaged and acknowledge their past shortcomings to work to reestablish democracy.