How Moderates in the Democratic Party Affect the National Agenda

By Nicholas Urbati ‘25

Following the 2020 presidential election and subsequent runoff elections for the Georgia Senate seats in early 2021, the Senate has been locked in a partisan tie, with 50 Democrats against 50 Republicans. On its surface, the situation in the Senate appears to be that of two solid, internally-unified blocks; however, that inference belies the actual reality of the current situation in the upper chamber.

Unveiled during Biden’s presidential campaign, the Build Back Better Agenda is the central plan for the Biden administration’s first years in the White House. The president certainly has the power to propose the national agenda, but as Article I of the Constitution establishes, it is up to Congress to legislate. Accordingly, the legislative battle over the program has drawn substantial attention, especially given the increasingly polarized environment that Biden pledged to bridge in the first speech he gave after his election. In the midst of this fight, the partisan tie in the Senate means that it only takes a single senator to derail the Biden agenda: a fact that has not gone unnoticed by two senators, Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

Reelected in 2018 by a 3.3% margin, Senator Manchin finds himself in a precarious situation. Although West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold, the state has been trending Republican since the 1990s to where Senator Manchin is the only Democrat in the state’s entire congressional delegation. In fact, in the 2020 election, Donald Trump won the state by a dizzying 38.9 points, a margin of victory only usurped by Wyoming and Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District. The political nature of his state has led Senator Manchin to avoid committing too much to either party in order to develop a reputation of bipartisanship. During the Trump Administration, Senator Manchin was one of the most conservative Democrats who voted with the president 50.4% of the time, including his deciding vote on the appointment of then-nominee Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court back in 2018. Senator Manchin understands that winning in West Virginia requires one to either fully embrace the Republican party or be as moderate a Democrat as possible. Senator Manchin does insist that his bipartisanism is symbolically important to “unite this country,” though the effect of that remains to be seen. The West Virginia senator isn’t the only well-known moderate Democrat, though: that title is shared with the senior senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema.

Senator Sinema, elected in 2019, has similarly been classified as one of the Senate’s most conservative Democrats. During the Trump administration, she voted with the president 50.4% of the time, just as often as Joe Manchin. Additionally, Arizona is a state known for producing Republican icons, like former Senators Barry Goldwater and John McCain. For Senator Sinema to be the first Democrat senator to win in over 30 years is a testament to her bipartisanship. While this allows her to win over independents and conservative Democrats, many of her more left-leaning Democratic constituents are not pleased with her moderate tendencies. A situation involving the senator recently made national headlines due to protesters following her into a public restroom because of her moderate stance on immigration and supposed refusal to talk with her constituents. Indeed, top Democrats initially drafted a statement condemning the protesters; however, it was never released because of Senator Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) refusal to sign the letter, citing Senator Sinema’s lack of support for Biden’s agenda. This spat is largely indicative of the growing divisions within the Democratic party, especially surrounding the more progressive elements of Build Back Better. 

 With such a slim majority in the Senate for Democrats, every senator has the power to derail a bill; the moderates in the Democratic party commonly exert this ability. Back in early March, the Senate was debating the American Rescue Plan Act, which would provide 1.9 trillion dollars in economic stimulus if passed. When an amendment was introduced by Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) to extend unemployment benefits to September, Senator Manchin withdrew his support from the bill, putting the massive legislation in limbo for hours while top Democrats negotiated behind the scenes. Only after the amendment was revised did Senator Manchin reinstate his support, allowing for the bill to pass. It is important to note that the American Rescue Plan Act was passed through a budget reconciliation process, meaning it only required a simple majority of senators for a bill to pass, not the typical 60. That leads to an issue with passing the rest of Biden’s agenda. With staunch refusal by Republicans to support Biden’s plan – the minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stated that he’s “100 percent” focused on preventing any legislation from the administration – Biden’s plan is susceptible to the filibuster, a Senate procedure where one can debate a bill until 60 senators invoke cloture to end debate and proceed to a vote. Since 60 votes are needed, and there are only 50 Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans, controversial legislation can be stalled indefinitely. While proponents of the procedure argue that it forces bipartisanship and finding common ground, others, like majority leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), emphasize how it’s an antiquated measure for obstructionism. The senator’s point isn’t without evidence, given how the filibuster has long been used to block civil rights legislation, for example.

This leads back to the moderate portion of the Democratic party. Senator Manchin refuses to abolish the filibuster, emphasizing growing gridlock each time it is weakened, while Senator Sinema expresses how there is more to lose than gain. As a result, unless President Biden can garner enough bipartisan support for his Build Back Better Agenda, his national plan is dead in its tracks. However, that proposition is not entirely unrealistic. In early August, the Senate passed a 1 trillion dollar infrastructure bill on a vote of 69 to 30 after months of bipartisan negotiations. The legislation was a greatly reduced version of President Biden’s initial two trillion dollar proposal. While it managed to clear the Senate, the bill’s vote was repeatedly delayed in the House due to progressive members urging the Senate to pass a much larger 3.5 trillion spending bill which moderate members were opposed to (Senator Manchin, for instance, stated how he would only support a 1.5 trillion-dollar bill). In a legislative win for moderates, the bill was finally voted on and passed after the results of the 2021 gubernatorial and legislative elections without the passage of the larger spending bill.

All said, the moderate wing of the Democratic party has a large influence on the trajectory of the national agenda. How the Biden administration manages this influence will have significant implications for upcoming elections. The 2021 state election results – which showcased significant victories for Republicans – were an unwelcome sight for Democrats, especially with the 2022 midterms now less than a year away. President Biden has also grown increasingly unpopular, dipping below 40 percent in an October Quinnipiac poll. In response to these issues, The New York Times Editorial Board called for a return to a moderate agenda to stave off a potential political catastrophe in the midterms, and to embrace moderates like Senator Manchin and Senator Sinema, not to pressure them to change their minds. While still unclear at this time whether top Democratic leadership will follow this advice, the Times’s recommendation may be a signal that the moderate wing’s influence is not going anywhere, anytime soon.