How Mississippi’s Gubernatorial Election Might be Surprisingly Competitive

A picture of the Mississippi State Capitol Building

By Nicholas Urbati ‘25

While some may be unaware, 2023 is an election year just like any other. Though they are not as closely watched as the midterms nor have the grandiosity of the presidential campaigns, the hundreds of local and statewide races taking place this year are still just as important. While much has been written about Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s reelection campaign or the competitive race for the open Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, a less scrutinized surprise could be brewing in the Bible Belt. Often labeled as one of the most conservative states in the country, Mississippi’s governor election might be much closer than one would initially think.

Mississippi’s Political Background

Mississippi conducts its statewide and legislative elections on off-years. It is a century-old policy dating from the late 19th century. When the Federal Elections Bill of 1890 was introduced to Congress to improve federal oversight of House of Representative elections – which would encourage Black turnout––both Mississippi and Kentucky swiftly moved their elections to the calendar they use today. While that bill failed to pass, the effect of the calendar change still influences Mississippi politics to this day—turnout is far lower than typical election years, and those that do vote are often “whiter, wealthier, and more conservative voters,” as Democracy Docket puts it. 

That is not the only factor that makes Mississippi a tough environment for competition. The state’s electorate is what political scientists would call “inelastic”; in other words, the voters in Mississippi are not that persuadable. In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website focused on political analysis, the only place with a more inelastic electorate is Washington, D.C. (thanks to its predominantly urban environment). This inelasticity is, in large part, because the electorate is racially polarized in a way where white residents nearly completely back Republicans for office and Black residents the opposite. Because white people make up a majority of the State’s population, Republicans are almost always guaranteed to win statewide elections. Democrats additionally struggle to make inroads with these primarily rural, largely evangelical white voters. 

All these factors combined, it is no surprise that Republicans dominate in the state. All statewide offices are held by Republicans. Three of the State’s four Representatives are Republican, as well as both Senators; both legislative chambers also have Republican supermajorities, meaning no Democrats are needed in the policymaking process. Add to that a dysfunctional state Democratic party, and it ensures that almost any Democrat will lose.

So, What About the Governorship?

The last time a Democrat won the governorship in Mississippi was Ronnie Musgrove in 1999, though even then he did not win a majority of the vote (that title goes to Ray Mabus in 1987). The only time since then where the race was considered potentially competitive was the 2019 gubernatorial election, where popular Democrat Attorney General Jim Hood faced off against Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. Even with Hood having an undefeated statewide election streak since 2004, Reeves still defeated him by a comfortable 5 points. Moreover, the Mississippi Constitution mandated at the time that candidates had to win a majority of the State House Districts, in which Reeves also easily won. Fortunately for Democrats, this Jim Crow relic was promptly abolished after a 2020 referendum.

So, will the 2023 election be any different? For starters, incumbent Tate Reeves is running for reelection, though he has maintained abysmal popularity levels and a recent poll from Mississippi Today/Siena College stated that 57% of respondents would like “someone else'' compared to Reeves. This is not that much of a surprise if one has been following the numerous controversies in Mississippi politics. The state is currently in the middle of dealing with what the State Auditor calls the “largest public fraud in state history,” in which 77 million dollars were embezzled. Reeves has also been confronted with the Jackson Water Crisis and currently facing the potential closure of 38 rural hospitals across the state. His relationship with fellow Republican leaders in the state has also been icy, which could weaken his general election campaign. While Reeves has some accomplishments to boast to voters—a record surplus, teacher pay raise, and abortion restrictions—his current position is less than ideal.   

On the other hand, the Democrats main contender is Brandon Presley, an elected member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission. A distant relative of Elvis Presley, he is one of the highest-ranking Democrats in the state and the best option Democrats have for the cycle. In 2015, he won the commission district he represents by over 10 points, and his seat went uncontested in 2019. The results are impressive, considering his district is in Northern Mississippi, an area Republicans typically do well in. While he lacks the name recognition that Reeves currently has, those that are aware of him give him much lower unfavorability ratings compared to Reeves, according to a Mississippi Today/Siena College poll. 

While some may make comparisons to Hood’s failed 2019 campaign, there are some differences. Unlike Hood, Presley received an uncommon endorsement from Representative Bennie Thompson, the highest-ranking Democratic politician in the state. This could hold considerable weight for the state’s Black Democrats, a demographic that previous white Democratic candidates have failed to appeal to. Presley has an experienced campaign staff too, hiring the same campaign manager that led Roy Cooper to victory in the close 2016 gubernatorial election in North Carolina, as well other consultants involved in Governor John Bel Edwards victories in Louisiana. Lastly, Presley is focused on nonpartisan issues: infrastructure work he has done, a hiring program he created, and his goal to tackle corruption—in the words of the Mississippi Free Press, he’s running a “populist campaign.”

Do the Democrats have a Chance?

As of now, the only poll out from Mississippi Today/Siena College has Reeves leading Presley 43% to 39%, with a 4.6% margin of error. However, the race is still quite early, and more information is needed before accurate predictions can truly be made, whether that be through polls or campaign fundraising information. Gubernatorial races are also more unique in that they rely on statewide factors and are not as susceptible to national forces; this gives Presley the leeway to distance himself from the actions of the national Democratic Party or potential unpopular decisions of President Biden. Still, while the race may be close, it is still Reeves to lose—with Mississippi’s inelastic electorate and contemporary dominance of the Republican party, even a great Democratic candidate like Presley will struggle.  

Though, you never know what elections hold. In the right circumstances, Democrats winning in the ruby red South is not impossible, such as former Senator Doug Jones’ surprise victory in Alabama’s 2018 Senate Special Election due to Roy Moore’s scandalous candidacy. While something of that severity has yet to occur to Reeves, the welfare scandal plaguing the state did occur during his time as Lieutenant Governor, and he has been under scrutiny for the role he may have played in it.

This is all to say that the general election is not until November 7, 2023; anyone writing off this race as an easy Republican victory should give the race another look over.