Trump is Not the Answer

A New York Times article showcasing the preliminary 2020 election results.

By Tony Owens ‘24

In the early weeks of November 2020, it became clear that the White House would be home to a new family in the coming year. Voters elected former Vice President Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States and Senator Kamala Harris as the 49th Vice President. Republicans did not fare much better in the House and Senate either. While the outcome was not as drastic as polling projected, Democrats maintained control of the House and, after a pair of Senate Runoff Elections in Georgia, obtained a narrow Senate majority. This meant the Democrats had won control of the House, Senate, and presidency for the first time since 2008. Republicans had hoped Donald Trump would inspire enough support in key states to defeat Joe Biden. This failed because Trump was not capable of appealing to a large enough portion of the American electorate, as he had in 2016.

Donald Trump is one of the most polarizing figures in modern American political history. His rise to the political forefront, after declaring his candidacy in 2015, took the political world by storm. Trump went on to win in 2016, when Republicans also took control of both the House and the Senate. Having ran as a Washington outsider, Donald Trump was able to convince people that he would be able to “drain the swamp” and rectify the problems that had plagued the country for the past few decades. Despite these promises, President Donald Trump was far from a beloved figure. His approval rating hovered around the low 40s, reaching its peak in the mid 40s during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sinking down to the high 30s in January 2021 prior to him leaving office. Historically, it was common for Presidents to see an approval rise during times of crisis. George W. Bush’s approval rating reached as high as 88% immediately following the September 11th attacks. In contrast, Trump’s approval numbers have been consistently weak. In fact, Donald Trump is the only President to never receive an approval of above 50% in gallup polling since the advent of gallup in 1938.

A group of Trump supporters at a West Virginia rally in September of 2018.

This lack of popularity became evident during the 2020 election. Trump underperformed Republican Senate candidates in key states such as Michigan and Georgia, both of which he won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Republican Senate candidate John James earned a higher percentage of the vote in Michigan than Trump, and incumbent Georgia Senator David Perdue received more votes in the general election than Donald Trump. The results show that many Americans who voted Republican down ballot were unconvinced that Donald Trump was fit to lead the country for another four years.

One might ask, however, if Trump is and was so unpopular, how was he able to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. While it is impossible to list every factor, among the most important were Clinton’s own unpopularity issues, as well as the sentiment from voters that it was time for a change. In 2016 there was a palpable distaste for both of the major party nominees. The term “lesser of two evils” was frequently used to refer to both candidates, and many voters sought third party options for the first time. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who also ran for the Libertarian party in 2012, saw his national popular vote total more than triple from 2012 to 2016, a sign that voters were far from satisfied with what the Republicans and Democrats had to offer. Many Americans voted for Trump simply because he was not Hillary Clinton.

This changed when Donald Trump faced off against Joe Biden, a candidate with much higher favorability than Clinton and a history of working with both parties in the Senate. Biden was able to capture much of the support lost by Clinton in 2016 and as a result was able to flip several swing states and win the presidency.

In order to compete on a national level, Republicans must nominate someone who is much more popular with the average voter. Trump’s large rallies are great for galvanizing the most loyal part of his base, but they do little to help with the moderate Republican voter who is having an increasingly hard time identifying with a figure who is so controversial. It would be much easier for these voters to get behind a candidate who comes without all of the baggage associated with Donald Trump.

The Republican party must also come to terms with the reality that current demographic trends are not working in their favor. As the country becomes more diverse, with a growing Hispanic population, Republicans must begin looking for candidates that can attract those voters to their party. While Donald Trump, to his credit, did perform better with minority groups than previous Republican candidates, it was still not enough to defeat Joe Biden, and the margins will only get worse as time goes on. Exit polls in 2020 showed that Hispanic voters voted for Biden over Trump, and the same is true for young voters (18-24), as both groups backed Biden by a margin of almost 2-1. Without a candidate who is capable of building a young and diverse coalition, the Republican party will struggle for years to come.

A Black Lives Matter rally in New York City (June 2020)

Regardless of the decision the Republican party makes, they must decide fairly quickly. It is hard to see a different Republican defeating Donald Trump in the 2024 primaries if he does indeed decide to run. This sentiment is echoed by prominent Republicans, with Senator Mitt Romney going so far as to say “I don't know if he'll [Trump] run in 2024 or not, but if he does, I'm pretty sure he will win the nomination.”. There have also been few, if any, prominent voices of opposition to Trump within the Republican party, with the late Senator John McCain representing the most notable exception. This has been a theme since Trump won the Republican primary in 2016, as many of his top opponents such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have since become among his most fervent supporters.This strategy may help them politically in the short term, but it is not in the best interest of the average Republican voter. Republicans must realize that Donald Trump should not be the leader of their party, and they must realize quickly. Every moment the Republican party spends backing Trump is a moment they spend sacrificing their future prospects to avoid making the tough decision of abandoning Trump and moving the party in a new direction.