The Race to Replace George Santos
From left to right: Hon. Mazi Melesa Pilip (Source: Forward), Philip Sean Grillo (Source: New York Post), Kellen Curry (Source: The Island 360), Mike Sapraicone (Source: Newsday), Sen. Jack Martins (Source: Manhasset Press), Rep. George Santos (Source: NPR), Fmr. Rep. Tom Suozzi (Source: NBC), Hon. Josh Lafazan (Source: Queerty), Robert Zimmerman (Source: North Shore Leader), Fmr. Sen. Anna Kaplan (Source: Long Island Herald), Zak Malamed (Source: Huffpost).
By Aidan Davis ‘26
On election night in 2022, New York Democrats were hit by a proverbial freight train. The confluence of a massive overperformance by Gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin and a slight underperformance by Governor Kathy Hochul pushed Republicans across the finish line in races across the Empire State, including in the State Senate, State Assembly, and crucially, six Congressional seats that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Long Island was flooded in the localized red tsunami, where Democratic incumbents Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice left open seats that Republicans snatched up. Simply put: New York decided control of the House of Representatives.
And on that fateful night, as the results trickled in across the country, I remember sitting in the basement of 1903 Hall on Princeton’s campus, shocked. As friends around me cheered that John Fetterman had just won the Senate race in Pennsylvania, I was awestruck that my hometown was about to be represented by a Republican in Congress for the first time in over 20 years.
I had known newly-elected Congressman George Santos was shady as early as July 2022, when rumors of bad business dealings began circulating as I worked on Josh Lafazan’s Democratic Primary campaign. By then, news outlets had uncovered that he worked at a firm that was being investigated by the SEC as a ponzi scheme, but Santos himself was not under investigation for wrongdoing in that case. He had also already become controversial in the district because of his conduct in his 2020 face-off against incumbent Congressman Tom Suozzi. But even still, I could never have expected what would come next.
In case you are not aware, George Santos has gone down as perhaps the most dishonest politician in American history. He lied about where he went to college, where he worked, that he was black and Jewish, and that his mother died on 9/11. He took COVID unemployment money while making a six figure salary, stole charity money raised for a veteran’s dying dog, and allegedly ran a credit card skimming scam in 2017. He stole his roommate’s scarf and wore it to the Stop the Steal rally in D.C. the day before January 6th and admitted to stealing a neighbor’s checkbook to buy clothes. And to top it all off, he has consistently denied that he adopted the drag persona ‘Kitara Ravache’ while living in Brazil.
Because of how likely this seat is to flip in 2024, Democrats are more interested in it this year than they have been in years past. Santos’ approval rating is hovering at around 7%, and he has been federally indicted on 13 counts, including wire fraud and money laundering. Now, it looks very likely that Santos will take a plea deal, the terms of which would likely require him to resign from office before his next court date—October 27th. Contrary to insider reports, however, Santos still openly insists that there will be no plea deal and that he will stand for reelection in 2024.
As I’m writing this article, more than a dozen candidates—Democratic and Republican—have announced that they are running for NY-03 in 2024. Some are more notable than others, and for this article, I am only going to directly cover the “serious” ones: 2024 candidates who have raised over $100,000, have a major endorsement, or are otherwise integral to telling the story of the race. I will also be speculating on potential special election party nominees—that is if one should occur and a different candidate be chosen.
I am not going to pretend that I’m unbiased here. I am a proud Democrat. As I mentioned before, I worked on Josh Lafazan’s 2022 Congressional Primary campaign. I’ve also marched with Anna Kaplan against antisemitism in my community and with Zak Malamed to celebrate India Day. I even occasionally spar with Congressman Santos on Twitter. But most of all, I am a political operative (although Congressman Santos would call me a “Bottom of the Barral [sic] one”). Nonetheless, I think that it is essential to be able to accurately analyze a race from a neutral point of view, both in my professional work and in my commentary.
The Declared Candidates: The Democrats
Josh Lafazan
The 29 year old Nassau County Legislator was the first to declare for this seat, announcing his campaign only a month after Santos’ past schemes rivaling Inventing Anna were revealed. Lafazan won a seat on his local school board at the age of 18 and is concurrently running for a fourth term this year in the Nassau County Legislature as well as this Congressional race. Lafazan placed third for this Congressional seat’s Democratic Primary in 2022, with a little over 20% of the vote. In the past, he has pitched himself as a ‘Common Sense’ Democrat, focusing on quality of life legislation that addresses mental health, food allergies, and veteran homelessness. His campaign has currently had the most successful fundraising with his June 2023 FEC report showing around $550,000.
Lafazan was criticized in 2022 for having run on the Conservative line during his Legislative elections (New York’s fusion voting system allows candidates to run on multiple ballot lines if endorsed by multiple parties). Lafazan has defended himself by saying that his endorsement by the Conservative Party of Nassau County came about as a result of his activism on ending the opioid crisis and that such an endorsement is not unprecedented in competitive Nassau County races (consider, for example, former Democratic District Attorney Madeline Singas in 2019).
Lafazan is also being ruthlessly attacked by local Republicans, as he is the most vulnerable incumbent in the County Legislature and stands in the way of Nassau Republicans gaining a supermajority in the chamber. Hilariously untrue attack advertisements depict Lafazan as a scammer and a shut-in, and there’s even one of him grabbing money (which has been criticized for being antisemitic due to Lafazan’s Jewish heritage). Lafazan is the most centrist candidate in the race and would be a hard candidate for Republicans to beat in 2024.
Anna Kaplan
Anna Kaplan is a former State Senator from New York’s 7th district. Kaplan is a Persian Jew who fled her homeland as a child during the Iranian Revolution. She eventually settled down in Great Neck, where she ran for Town Council and then New York’s Third Congressional District in 2016.
Kaplan is best known as a part of the “Long Island 6,” a group of Democratic State Senators in New York that first won in 2018 and delivered the majority in the chamber to Democrats for the first time since 2010. In 2022, Kaplan was defeated by the district’s former State Senator Jack Martins by a margin of 53%-47%.
Kaplan has proven that she is an experienced fundraiser; her June 2023 FEC report showed $265,000 raised and a $190,000 loan, together totaling just over $455,000.
Kaplan has been criticized for her stance on bail reform—in 2019, she controversially voted yes on a bill to remove discretion from judges in favor of a cashless bail system in New York State. Seeing as how bail reform affected New York Democrats in 2021 and 2022, it is generally now considered a “third rail” in Democratic circles: no one wants to touch on it. Kaplan has since distanced herself from that vote and has focused her campaign on Santos, women’s issues, and her life story. Kaplan is a solid moderate who can galvanize the Democratic base, so long as she is able to defend against attacks on her record.
Zak Malamed
Zak Malamed is a 29-year-old Democratic fundraiser from Great Neck who threw his hat into the ring in May 2023. Malamed co-founded The Next 50 in 2020, a PAC dedicated to defeating MAGA extremists across the country with young Democrats.
Malamed is an interesting candidate: he can eat away at both Lafazan and Kaplan’s support bases (young people and the Persian-Jewish community, respectively). His inclusion in the race, as well as his $400,000 in fundraising, is preventing a true two-person race between the frontrunners. $250,000 of that $400,000 was collected in the campaign’s first 24 hours, a one-day record for the district.
The Declared Candidates: The Republicans
Kellen Curry
Kellen Curry was George Santos’ first Republican challenger, declaring his candidacy for the seat in April. Curry is an air force veteran and J.P. Morgan Executive and would be the first African American major party nominee in NY-03 history should he secure the nomination (Basically, he’s everything George Santos wishes and claims he was).
Curry is the only non-incumbent Republican in the race that has publicly available fundraising figures and is currently sitting at $200,000 as of June 2023.
Curry currently has intra-party backing, with a handful of former Republican Congressmen involving themselves in his campaign. Notably, no New York Republicans have come out in support of Curry as of the writing of this article.
Mike Sapraicone
Mike Sapraicone is a retired NYPD detective and security firm founder. Although he only jumped into the race recently, he already has $580,000 in cash on hand as of October 2023. Like Kaplan in the Democratic primary, only a portion of that money was fundraised. Sapraicone’s successful business background has allowed him to self-finance almost $300,000 into his campaign’s coffers.
Sapraicone is the latest edition of what I like to call the “Anthony D’Esposito model,” which describes Republicans who run as police or law-enforcement adjacent candidates in suburban districts to hammer in law and order rhetoric. This strategy paid dividends in 2022, when Anthony D’Esposito defeated Laura Gillen in NY-04 by 4% when the district voted for Biden by 14 points. Sapraicone hopes to replicate this success in NY-03, which was only Biden +10 in 2020.
Sapraicone has been endorsed by former Republican Senator Al D’Amato and appears to have limited insider backing as well.
Philip Sean Grillo
Philip Sean Grillo is perhaps the only candidate in this primary more controversial than George Santos. Grillo is currently federally indicted on charges of insurrection after breaking into the Capitol Building on January 6th.
Yes, an insurrectionist is running for George Santos’ seat.
Grillo is a staunch Trump supporter and supported Santos in 2022, but has since expressed that he no longer does. Seemingly, his motivation for running is spite, with his main priority stated as making sure former Representative Tom Suozzi does not reclaim the seat. Not much is known about his campaign’s financial situation.
George Santos
Somehow, after everything that he’s been indicted on, accused of, and admitted to, George Santos is still standing for reelection.
Santos has around $86,000 in cash on hand, a paltry sum compared to his opponents, but he could still put up some semblance of a fight with his massive name recognition. Unfortunately for him and fortunately for almost everyone else, however, that name recognition is almost entirely negative.
Special Election Shenanigans
What happens in a New York Special?
As discussed previously, New York State law specifies that any House vacancy be filled via special election 70 to 80 days after the vacancy is created. If Santos is somehow able to hold out until July, the special election will be folded into the November general election.
The selection of nominees is a byzantine process, as there are no special election primaries under state law. Instead, the county party chairs that the Congressional District covers are instructed to convene and pick a candidate for the special election, meaning that the county parties of Nassau County and Queens County on each side will select their nominees for a special election to serve out the remainder of the term.
Whoever is chosen for the special very much depends on the timing at which the special election occurs. Seventy days is an extremely short campaign, meaning that the parties would be served best selecting candidates with existing campaign infrastructure. However, it is likely that on the Democratic side, Jay Jacobs (who serves as both the New York State Party Chairman and the Nassau County Party Chairman) would be able to coordinate with the Queens Party Chair more effectively than their Republican counterparts.
Who is being floated for a Special?
Former Congressman Tom Suozzi has reportedly been extremely interested in reclaiming his old seat and appears to be the favorite of national party leadership—including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Suozzi is also seen as the safe bet by party insiders, who think he would easily win against any potential Republican nominee.
Another Democratic hopeful is last year’s nominee Robert Zimmerman, who has expressed in the past that he is interested in another go at the seat. The Washington Post reports that Zimmerman is “still acting like a candidate” and is interacting with constituents in that way.
Josh Lafazan and Anna Kaplan are also thought to be in contention for a potential special election Democratic nomination.
On the Republican side, names such as State Senator Jack Martins and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip have been thrown around, but nobody outside of the party truly knows who the Republicans are thinking of. Martins has denied interest, while Pilip has been quiet about the prospect of running for Congress. Like Lafazan, she is also facing reelection to the Nassau County Legislature this year in a competitive district. Nassau County Party Chair Joe Cairo says he has been “inundated” with eager Republicans looking to run. Bizarrely enough, former New York City Mayoral Candidate and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa has also been courted to run for the seat by party insiders.
Quite amusingly, the lack of clarity in the leadup to the election has led to speculation about potential rematches depending on who the parties or primary electorates nominate. Tom Suozzi versus Jack Martins would be a rematch of their battle for the seat in 2016. Anna Kaplan versus Jack Martins would bring back memories of their 2022 State Senate face-off. If Santos somehow wins the Republican nomination, both Tom Suozzi and Robert Zimmerman would be grudge rematches for the embattled Congressman.
Whatever the matchup may be, it is important to remember that Republicans are heavily disadvantaged in this district due to Santos’ scandals, higher Democratic turnout during Presidential years, and the pending redistricting lawsuit that may change the Congressional lines for the third time in two years.
So whether George Santos takes a plea deal, House Republicans give him the boot, or he tries to run for reelection from federal prison, the race for his House seat will still be crucial to deciding House control in 2024.