Democrats' Failed Midterm Messaging

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By Tony Owens ‘24

With the midterm elections coming up, voters will be able to voice their approval, or lack thereof, for President Biden through his first two years in office. Despite a falling approval rating, dropping below 50% for the first time in early August, Biden is still significantly more popular than President Trump at this point in their respective presidencies, and Democrats have a fighting chance at retaining both the House and Senate in 2022. However, the Democrats are failing to capitalize on Biden’s popularity and his ability to deliver early on several key campaign promises. It is possible that this lack of effective messaging will result in Republicans retaking the House and possibly the Senate, which would effectively end any chance of a major legislative accomplishment for Biden in the latter part of his first term. Early on, there was hope amongst many Democrats that Biden would be a transformative President, who would bring change to the White House. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) even went so far as to say he could be “the most progressive President since FDR”. With the bar set so high, two years of only minor achievements would likely disappoint many supporters and make the presidential election in 2024 an uphill battle should Biden decide to run again. With this in mind, the midterm elections must be a top priority for the Democratic Party, as they will have a significant impact on President Biden’s future in office. 

When Democrats were able to retake the House in 2018, they drastically altered the course of the Trump administration. Had Democrats not taken control, Trump likely would not have been impeached either time and could have looked to fulfill his campaign promises, such as “repealing and replacing” Obamacare. This would have undoubtedly made Trump a much more formidable opponent for President Biden in the 2020 election. However, it is not just the Trump administration, as every president since George Bush in 2002 has lost seats in the House following a midterm election. Perhaps the most extreme example was the 2010 midterms, where Democrats lost a whopping 63 seats in the House, which contributed to Republicans staying in control until 2018. Republicans have already made clear that they have little interest in cooperating with President Biden, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell going so far as to say he is “100 percent focused on standing up to this [Biden] administration.” McConnell is not alone in his rhetoric, with Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) going so far as to say he wants to make Joe Biden a “one-half term president” explaining that he wants Republicans to take control of the House and Senate and use their power to cripple the administration. 

The major problem for the Democrats is that they lack a clear message for voters as to why they should support them. In 2018 the message was simple, strong opposition to President Trump and the actions of his administration. Now that Trump is not in office, there is no unifying enemy for the Democratic base to coalesce around. Instead, the Biden administration must use its record to convince voters that the country is heading in the right direction. This should not be too difficult as Biden has already delivered on several key campaign promises, such as the Child Tax Credit, the campaign’s vaccination goals and several others. Several elected Democrats are raising similar concerns about messaging, such as Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) who explained that the party must do more to “promote President Joe Biden’s agenda, which remains popular with swing voters.” For Democrats, the path to victory is clear: they must refocus their efforts on showing voters everything Joe Biden has accomplished and why he represents the best path forward for the country. While this seems easy enough, the stakes are incredibly high and Democrats must approach the remaining months with a sense of urgency. 

There is little room for error in 2022 for the Democrats, who hold razor-thin majorities in both the House and the Senate. In the House, the Democrats hold 220 seats, accounting for vacancies in OH-11 and FL-20, only 2 more than the 218 needed for a majority. The Senate margin is even tighter.With both parties holding 50 seats, Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie breaking vote gives Democrats the narrowest majority possible. With such slim majorities, the poor polling the Democrats are facing could have devastating consequences for the Biden administration, both now and heading into 2024. If the midterm elections were held today, Democrats would likely experience massive defeats that would cost them their majorities in both houses of Congress. 

This is reflected in the data, as the RCP average for congressional vote in the 2022 elections has the Democrats a mere 0.3 points above the Republicans. This should cause serious panic as in 2018 the Democrats won the popular vote in House elections by over 8 points and in the Senate elections by nearly 20 points. There is also the factor of redistricting after the 2020 census. Since Republicans will be in control of most redistricting processes throughout the country, they will look to use gerrymandering to eliminate as many seats held by Democrats as possible. David Daley of the Guardian explains, “everyone could vote the exact same way for Congress next year as they did in 2020 … but under the new maps that will be in place, the Republican Party would take control.” Democrats must perform extremely well to overcome all the challenges they are facing in holding on to their majorities and preventing Republicans from stifling the remainder of President Biden’s first term.

It is clear that the messaging of the Democratic Party is not resonating well with its base. If this is not addressed, there is little else to expect other than a crushing defeat for Democrats, which will likely see the rise of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House and could even bring back Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader, an absolute nightmare scenario for any democratic voter. Democrats must focus all of their resources on reaching out to voters and showing them why the policies of the Democratic Party will benefit them the most, regardless of whether these voters live in red or blue districts. If this is not done, Biden will go into 2024 having gone years without any major legislative accomplishment, disappointing many who voted for him and leaving him vulnerable should he decide to run for re-election. The upcoming midterms will set the tone for the rest of his presidency, and the Democratic Party must do everything in its power to help keep the scales tilted in their favor.