Your Guide to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

By Drew Hopkins

The thundering of artillery and rocket fire shook the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh as the decades-old territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan devolved into open conflict.

Since the inauguration of hostilities on September 27th, both sides have declared martial law and states of either partial or total mobilization. Both countries have reported casualties within the low thousands with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the true number may be approaching 5,000. Fighting has continued since, with Azerbaijan making minor gains along the Iranian border. However, Azerbaijani forces have been unable to break into the mountainous interior of Nagorno-Karabakh, devolving the conflict into a stalemate . Concerns have been raised over a potential escalation of the conflict: Armenia has long had the support of Russia, which views the Caucasus as part of its geopolitical backyard, while Azerbaijan may have been emboldened by support from Turkey, in a bid to reduce Russian influence in the region.

Nonetheless, both Russia and Turkey have encouraged a peaceful settlement. While the roots of the conflict date all the way back to Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s first war following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the method in which it is being fought is distinctly modern: long range artillery, missile strikes and even social media campaigns have become the standard tools of war.

There have been multiple attempts to forge a ceasefire since September by both the United States and Russia. However, these have all been violated within hours or even minutes of being agreed upon. The ongoing conflict is the most recent flair-up in a decades-long dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a source of tension dating all the way back to the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I.

Nagorno-Karabakh itself, while internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, has been de facto independent as the Republic of Artsakh since the early 1990s. The region is almost entirely composed of ethnic Armenians who adhere to the Armenian Apostolic Church, compared to the overwhelming majority of Azerbaijanis who claim Turkish descent and are Shia Muslims. These ethnic and religious tensions have made the region incredibly unstable and volatile for nearly a century, as Azerbaijan has continuously attempted to retain control over the breakaway Republic. The genocide of millions of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during the First World War has served as part of the moral framework behind Armenians’ stalwart defense of the ethnic enclave.

The first war between the newly independent republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh was fought shortly after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, before both were incorporated into the Soviet Union in the 1920s. As Soviet power waned in the 80s and 90s, another full-scale war broke out as Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence from Azerbaijan with the full support and backing of Armenia. The conflict ended in a ceasefire which left the Republic of Artsakh and their Armenian guarantors in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and some of its surrounding territories, displacing an estimated 800,000 Azerbaijanis. 

As Azerbaijan seeks to reassert its control over what it deems a breakaway province, and Armenia looks to defend its ethnic and religious brethren, the outcome of the violence and the future of the region are both uncertain. Both sides have blamed the other for violating the various ceasefire arrangements, and allegations of war crimes have started to appear in the media. It seems unlikely for any of the belligerents to back down sans a major military breakthrough; however, the fact that they have agreed to negotiations — even if they have all broken down — could be a sign that neither wants to commit to a fight on the scale of the 1990’s war.

That being said, the presence of foreign backers has some worried about a potential escalation of the conflict, or at the very least, a prolonging of the violence. Russia, as the preeminent power in the Caucasus, has a vested interest in keeping the region stable and aligned with their interests (Russia has shown the lengths it will go to keep said stability, invading Georgia in 2008); in the past they have tried to withstrain both sides and claim neutrality in the current conflict. While Russia is the largest supplier of arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, they are often seen as being more heavily aligned with Armenia so as to balance Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan.

Turkey on the other hand has taken on a more active role in supporting its ally, reportedly sending troops to assist Azerbaijan as well as being accused by Armenia of shooting down one of their jets. The relationship between these two regional powers, Turkey and Russia, is both turbulent and complicated. Erdogan and Putin have often bonded over their shared strongmen tendencies and criticisms of the west; in 2019, Russia completed a major arms sale to Turkey, to the chagrin of NATO.

However, the two have clashed over the issue of the Syrian Civil War, with each supporting opposing sides. Turkey may be looking for an opportunity to replace Russia as the primary mover in the Caucasus. This would be consistent with Turkish President Erdogan’s more aggressive foreign policy in recent years, which included an intervention in the ongoing Syrian Civil War. This aggression could be linked to domestic challenges and a faltering economy, leading Erdogan to assert Turkish power internationally to build nationalistic support at home. 

As the fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh continues the situation is neither stable nor decided. Decades of bad blood has hardened the belligerents against one another and all attempts to broker a peace have failed. Only time will tell whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will come to a peaceful resolution, or if the violence has just begun.