Germany’s Populist Wave: Understanding the AfD’s Recent Rise
A photograph showing AfD supporters celebrating their September election wins in the states of Saxony and Thuringia (The Economist).
By Liam Hoffman ‘28
In September 2024, Germany’s Alternativ für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD) party won the Thuringia state parliamentary election, gaining over a third of all seats. This triumph marked the far right’s first election win in Germany since World War II and was complemented by a close second place finish in the neighboring Saxony. The AfD currently runs on a strong anti-immigration platform, which includes a plan for the mass deportation of migrants—however, the party hasn’t always stood for such far right positions. How did AfD, Germany’s newest political party, gain traction so quickly, and what does its popularity mean both domestically and internationally?
The Foundings of the AfD: From Euroscepticism to Anti-immigration
While the AfD is now most known for its anti-immigration—often Islamaphobic—views, the party’s values were quite different at the time of its founding in 2013. Created on a platform of euroscepticism, the party originated as a strong critic of the European Union, arguing that the eurozone, the group of countries that use the euro, should break apart and that Germany should return to using the Deutsche Mark currency. At the time, many in Germany felt that southern European countries like Greece were receiving unfair financial bailouts from the EU, weighing down the value of the euro, and that Germany would be better off only partnering with wealthier, northern European nations. In the 2014 elections, the AfD was able to capitalize on these beliefs, winning seats in three state parliaments and showing that the party’s popularity was rising in Germany. This popularity was especially prominent in the country’s east, which remains the strongest region for the AfD today. During this election, the party had already begun to adopt some of the nationalistic rhetoric that they use today. However, the main issue for the AfD and its voters remained their cynicism towards the Eurozone.
The concerns of the AfD shifted drastically in 2015, a year that would cement the party’s place in the far right of German politics. Following a decision by then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany let in over 1 million asylum seekers, mostly from the Middle East. This new open-door policy not only put obvious strain on German resources in refugee centers but was also a costly endeavor. In 2016 alone, Germany spent over 20 billion euros on refugees, as the country looked to house, feed, and educate the influx of asylum seekers. With this spending came not only a rise in right wing populism as Germans reacted negatively to these costs but also a shift in the AfD’s main policies. What was previously a party focused on Germany’s fiscal freedom became one steeped in xenophobic views, with the party citing the “loss of German identity” as one of the most pressing issues to the nation and adopting many overtly anti-Islam policies to their official party platform in 2016. This included—at AFD's national level—the party platform proposing a ban of face coverings and headscarves in schools, while a regional faction of the party even proposed banning mosques completely in a leaked draft policy. Policies like these showed just how drastically the party shifted in only a year, adopting more extreme viewpoints on social issues.
A photograph of an AfD campaign poster in eastern Germany telling Germans to vote AfD in order to “Stop Islamification” (The Wall Street Journal).
Key Drivers Behind the AfD's Recent Popularity Surge
Despite the AfD making some waves in German politics around the time of its founding, the party never made large enough gains to have a significant effect on political proceedings in the country. It has a history of winning only a few seats in state level elections, never being able to build coalitions with mainstream parties, and not once polling over 20 percent in the country until July of 2023. In fact, in 2020, the party even took a hit, with one poll suggesting that support for the party among Germany’s eastern states had dropped more than five percent in less than a year. This development came at a time of uncertainty and contempt for the party, as violence connected to Germany’s far right and the removal of a regional chairman of the party due to his ties to neo-Nazi groups worked to delegitimize the AfD in the eyes of many Germans.
Today, however, it would seem this drop never happened. Following their historic wins, the AfD has never been more popular. Membership has grown almost 60 percent in just over a year, and the AfD vote share has increased by at least 6 percent in all three state elections this fall.
What is driving this newfound popularity? It appears that the AfD hasn’t dramatically changed their platform since 2015, and yet, the party is more popular than ever.
One factor might be that the AfD has been able to uniquely target young voters in its campaign. One in three young people (ages 16 to 24) voted for the party in Brandenburg’s fall elections, a sharp rise compared to three years ago when 50 percent of young Germans voted for one of three left leaning parties in the governing coalition. The AfD has specifically used social media to target German youth in the east of the country, posting often controversial, provocative statements that drive interactions with the party’s platforms. Social media has been used in tandem with other strategies as well, such as a motorcycle rally organized by a former chair of the Thuringia state division of the AfD that included supporters of the party driving through villages and cities and proclaiming their support for the party, or the distribution of mock “deportation” plane tickets in the city of Karlsruhe.
Another reason for the AfD’s recent success may be their deliberate effort to appeal to Germany’s east, a region that has historically been much more conservative than the West. Since reunification in the ‘90s, the states making up former East Germany have consistently lagged behind those of the former West economically, with unemployment and education levels also often much worse in the east. This difference, combined with the fact that East Germans are traditionally underrepresented in high government positions, reveals clearly why those in the east might prove more likely to vote for the AfD, which has branded itself as the opposition to the “elitist western government,” than a different party.
Reactions to the AfD's Success
While the AfD seems to grow in popularity each election cycle, it also appears as though the opposition to their rise is louder than ever, with party conferences facing swaths of protestors every time they meet. Since January of this year, millions of Germans have joined together in protests across the country, denouncing the rising far-right and calling out AfD for their extremist views. Additionally, in a poll published in October, an astonishing two thirds of German voters reported that they view the rise of the AfD party as a challenge to democracy and rule of law, with half of respondents saying the party should be banned from German politics. This data demonstrates that even amongst its rise, the AfD nevertheless faces significant opposition from voters.
Across the continent, EU leaders wonder how the rise of the AfD and the continuation of their anti-euro rhetoric could impact the long standing partnership. Germany remains the Eurozone’s strongest economy, and with the rise of the AfD comes the possibility of the nation leaving the economic zone, threatening the longevity of the entire institution.
The future of the AfD remains unclear. With a continued rise, the party could threaten many of Germany’s—and Europe’s—most long-standing institutions. Still, the party will also almost certainly face opposition, which could threaten (and possibly topple) its newfound success.